Cautious Optimism

I had a birthday last month, a special one, not because it was a notable milestone but because I still had a pulse. The average life expectancy for a man in the US is 75.8 years, which is to say 50 percent of us will never see our 76th year.  Because I’ve made it to 72 there’s a reasonable chance of hanging on another decade.  We’ll see.  I’ll keep buying green bananas, but long term investments are out.

Living more than seven decades is a privilege denied to many, which is blatantly unfair.  Some of us take that long to recognize how wrong we’ve been, to let go of notions long accepted.  An aging man who claims no regrets is delusional or has a poor memory. 

Thirty-five years ago, astrophysicist Carl Sagan addressed the 5th Emerging Issues Forum at NCSU, reminding attendees that the US military had spent 10 trillion dollars fighting the Cold War. At that time, 10 trillion dollars was enough to buy everything in the country except the land— every home, automobile, dishwasher, screwdriver, diamond, yacht, and airline. Everything. The expense was justified given a threat of Russian invasion. The likelihood was unknown but the possibility, however remote, was real. 

Sagan compared that response to our reaction to climate change, a certain rather than perceived threat, and having global consequences more disastrous than a Russian invasion.  We’ve made headway— at least we’re talking about a warming planet— and we’ve developed technologies that are very promising. But we continue to pour oil on the fire. “Drill, baby, drill,” is what we hear. Any mention of “climate change” has been stricken from government documents. Scientists who monitor polar ice have been sacked. We have an aggressive cancer of the brain and the doctor is saying, “This isn’t real. I’ll scratch it from your chart and we won’t monitor or mention it again.”

As an extended birthday treat we spent a few days in northern Ontario in an off-grid cabin out of cell range. It’s wild country, where the boreal forest extends to the horizon in every direction and loons sing and moose roam and deep blue lakes speckle the landscape. While there we had a pack of wolves serenade us from a couple hundred yards of the cabin. I can’t be certain it was their rendition of Happy Birthday, but that’s what I heard. 

It’s interesting to get a world news perspective from a different country.  Canada does not look favorably on the US these days with its threats of tariffs and political posturing implying dominance. I couldn’t help wondering if Lee and I were scorned for being from the states. Nothing we experienced suggested it was so— the Canadians we encountered were as welcoming as ever— but the thought was there, and it was maddening. 

Beyond good luck and self care, a growing body of research indicates that optimistic people live 11 to 15 percent longer than their cynical counterparts. It’s another statistic in a world of gloom.  

There’s a clear distinction between contentment and optimism.  Friends and family, a bountiful garden, a good dog, a warm sun, a great meal— all can be satisfying but do little to fuel our optimism. If we’re aware of the rapid decline in biodiversity, the alarming rise in extinction rates, rampant microplastic contamination, dying coral reefs, melting glaciers, rising seas, the loss of productive soils— how can we be genuinely excited for the future?  

Artificial Intelligence is a life-altering technology that’s here to stay. In its simplest form it uses a library of data to simulate collective knowledge of the world. So I turned to a machine to ask, “In terms of environmental health, can the human race be optimistic?”  It answered, “Cautious optimism is possible— but only if significant action is taken… We have a narrow and rapidly closing window— roughly until 2030– to take major action and avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change and environmental decline.”

“The greatest threat to our planet is the belief that someone else will save it.” —Robert Swan

“Cautious optimism” requires a total commitment from every nation in the industrialized world. The  government of the country best positioned to lead the way (that would be us) denies a problem at all, and chooses instead to focus on military strength, immigration, and tax cuts for the ultra rich.  

“The time to answer the greatest challenge of our existence on this planet is now. (We) can make history or be vilified by it.” —Leonardo DiCaprio

The world spins and years scream by.  We get one life and if we’re lucky it’s a long one. We can use our time well— work hard and always do our best— but that doesn’t mean we’re doing it right. 

“The earth is what we all have in common.”  —Wendell Berry.